Friday, 23 November 2012

Credit Growth, Why do we need Infra, GAAR, CAG etc.


01.10.2012

Credit Growth:

Why interest rates need to fall ?
Ø  As John Kenneth Galbraith points out in The Economics of Innocent Fraud: If in recession the interest rate is lowered by the central bank, the member banks are counted on to pass the lower rate along to their customers, thus encouraging them to borrow. Producers will thus produce goods and services, buy the plant and machinery they can afford now and from which they can make money, and consumption paid for by cheaper loans will expand..The difficulty is that this highly plausible, wholly agreeable process exists only in well-established economic belief and not in real life… Business firms borrow when they can make money and not because interest rates are low.”
Ø  India leading player in PPP for infrastructure
Ø  Private sector financed 36% of infrastructure in 11th FYP and estimated to finance 50 % in 12 FYP. But returns are not encouraging. That will drive away future investment
Ø  Airline, retail, telecom- bleeding
Ø  Cutting interest rate will make FD less lucrative and push common man investment in stock market
Ø  Appreciating rupee will spruce up the returns of foreign investors-Let us say a foreign investor gets $1million to invest in Indian stocks when one dollar is worth Rs 55. He converts the dollars into rupees and invests Rs 5.5 crore ($1 million x Rs 55) in the Indian market. He invests for a period of one year and makes a return of 10 percent. His investment is now worth Rs 6.05 crore. One dollar is now worth Rs 50. When he converts the investors ends up with $1.21 million, or a return of 21 percent in dollar terms
Ø  An immediate impact of the appreciating rupee is that it brings down the oil bill. Oil is sold internationally in dollars. Let us say the Indian basket of crude oil is selling at $108 per barrel (one barrel equals 159 litres). If one dollar is worth Rs 55.4 then India has to pay Rs 5,983.2 for a barrel of oil. If one dollar is worth Rs 52.8, then India has to pay Rs 5,702.4 per barrel. So as the rupee appreciates the oil bill comes down.
Ø  The oil marketing companies (OMCs) sell diesel, kerosene and cooking gas at a price which is lower than the cost price and thus incur huge losses. The government compensates the OMCs for these losses to prevent them from going bankrupt. This money is provided out of the annual budget of the government under the oil subsidy account. But as the rupee appreciates and the losses come down, the oil subsidy also comes down. This means that the expenditure of the government comes down as well, thus lowering the fiscal deficit. Fiscal deficit is the difference between what the government earns and what it spends.
Ø  Rising stock markets> fiscal deficit>>
Ø  Rising share market will also help government in dis-investment plan of Rs. 30k crore this year.

Why we need infrastructure:

Ø  Basic fundamental driving force of all other sectors- highway, electricity, ports, airports, rail links, waterways, air-links, telecommunication
Ø  12th FYP one trillion dollar estimated to investment

GAAR- General Anti Avoidance Rules:

The Parthasarathi Shome panel, looking into the taxation issues relating to GAAR (General anti-Avoidance Rules), today submitted its final report to Finance Minister P Chidambaram. 
Ø  In a previous draft report, the panel had recommended that the GAAR rules be deferred for three years.
Ø   government should retain the provisions of the CBDT circular, which was issued in 2000, on acceptance of Tax Residence Certificate (TRC) issued by the Mauritius.
Ø  suggested the government should issue a circular to clarify GAAR provisions along with illustrations
Ø  GAAR be applicable only if the monetary threshold of tax benefit is Rs 3 crore and more

CAG Activism:

Ø  Only parliament can pull CAG
Ø  PIL- CAG has no mandate to comment of government policy choices and calculate loss / gains on basis of that.
Ø  Court- CAG can look into efficacy and impact of decision made by Government

CSIR- Council of Scientific and Industrial Research

Ø  Directorate General- Dr. Brahmachari takes charge as Director General CSIR
Ø  70TH Foundation day on 26.09.2012
Ø  Constituted in 1942 by the resolution of then central legislative assembly, it is an autonomous body registered under registration of society act 1860.

Architecture of Cash Transfer:

Ø  Why? To cut down wastage, leakage, duplication and enhance efficiency
Ø  National Ministerial Committee- under PM with membership of all concerned ministries- highest decision making body
Ø  National executive committee- with all secretaries of all concerned ministries- Coordination, timeline and sort out hitches
Ø  Implementation mission and committee-  Ground Work, Technology Committee, Financial Inclusion Committee, Electronic Benefit Transfer

Assam Floods:

Ø  The first wave offloods in Assam from end-June to mid-July affected more than 24 lakh people in all 27 districts of the state, took 125 lives and devastated 2.55 lakh hectares of farmlands. 
Ø  The second wave of floods over the past two weeks have affected 18 lakh people, so far, in 17 districts, killed nearly 30 and inundated two lakh hectares of farmlands.
Ø  Brahamputra carries largest amount of sediment > 800 million ton/ year and in absence of dredging – river bed swallowed> reduced the carrying capacity of water

Floods impact:

Ø  Prices has increased due to shortage of vial supplies
Ø  Rainfall 31% more than normal has added to woos
Ø  Airport – at the edge of Guhawti- in danger Lokmanya Gopinath Bordoloi
Ø  Train services affected
Ø  National park in danger

ICVL: International Coal venture limited

Ø  Venture of 5 state run company
Ø  Can make investment up to Rs. 1500 cr (for exceeding amount need to take permission from secretary)
Ø  Govt. need to provide/ delegate more power to management of ICVL 

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